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Post by teignmouth54 on Apr 12, 2017 10:21:09 GMT
On Good Friday evening the National League table could provide interesting reading.
At present, it would appear that 4 clubs are fighting to avoid the 2 remaining relegation places, assuming that North Ferriby and Southport are already doomed. However, this could easily rise to 2 out of 6 due to the fixture arrangements as follows:
Braintree v Guiseley Lincoln v Torquay Solihull Moors v York Woking v Macclesfield
Predicting results at this time of the season can be a lottery but I would expect Braintree and York to win. If Woking beat Macclesfield, it would mean that only 1 point separates Guiseley, Solihull Moors, York, Woking and Braintree, with 3 games to play.
Now comes the tricky part as Torquay must win at Sincil Bank. If Woking win and my other 2 predictions are correct, the 4 teams immediately above Torquay would each have 48 points, with Guiseley on 49. Defeat for Torquay would result in a deficit of 4 points but a victory followed by a win at home to Braintree on Easter Monday would give them a realistic chance of staying up. Torquay’s goal difference is currently superior to each of the other 5 clubs and this could prove vital at the end of the season.
On current form this is clearly stretching optimism to the limit. However, a draw at Dover followed by victory in Torquay’s final match at home to North Ferriby would give them 52 points, which should be enough.
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petef
Match Room Manager
Posts: 4,627
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Post by petef on Apr 12, 2017 16:54:46 GMT
Below is number of points required to avoid relegation over the last ten seasons with four relegation places to be filled. I clearly remember thinking that 50 points wouldn't be enough last season. As it turned out 49 would have seen us safe though we achieved safety on 51 with games to spare. I still believe it will be 51 points with our favorable goal difference that would see us safe. Seven points from the next four games I think is a bridge to far.
It means little but the average number of points required to avoid the drop is 47. This is not your average season unfortunately.
06/07 52 Altrincham in relegation place on 51 points. 07/08 42 Altrincham relegated on 41 points 08/09 45 Barrow relegated on 44 points. 09/10 46 Gateshead in relegation place on 45 points 10/11 47 Southport relegated on 46 points 11/12 42 Hayes and Yedding relegated on 41 points 12/13 51 Stockport relegated on 50 points 13/14 52 Chester relegated on 51 points 14/15 46 Welling relegated on 45 points 15/16 49 Halifax relegated on 48 points.
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