jerry
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Post by jerry on Jan 19, 2021 17:54:18 GMT
RJD / Jerry / Pete. In the Oxford/AZ trial, as RJD said, no one in the 38% that became infected required hospitalisation. So the vaccine was 100% effective in preventing hospitalisations - that's brilliant. That is indeed brilliant but my point was that if the trials were only carried out on "healthy" under 65's, who generally don't require hospitalisation anyway, then this is a fairly meaningless statistic. We won't know how effective it is in this regard until we are further down the line and can see how it helps those who are currently receiving the vaccine. |
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Post by swatcat on Jan 20, 2021 0:06:18 GMT
 Yes Jerry, sorry I rather pushed past your point - you are correct. But it is quite possible that good efficacy will be achieved in the over 65's too, we'll have to wait and see . . . it's important to me and a few others here I'd guess 
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Post by swatcat on Jan 20, 2021 9:24:09 GMT
Jerry another incomplete matter with all the vaccines atm, does the 'disinfectant' factor exist - i.e. are the vaccinated still able to transmit the disease or not ? Exciting early indications from Israel regarding the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine . . . "Pfizer vaccine recipients are unlikely to transmit the virus to others, according to the author of an Israeli study. Participants in the survey developed up to 20 times more antibodies within a week of receiving the second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The survey, which reviewed data from 102 of about 1,000 of the Sheba Medical Centre’s medical staff who have received both shots, showed that only two subjects have developed low amounts of antibodies - one of the subjects suffered from a compromised immune system.There was no explanation for why the second person did not develop antibodies, and the hospital said it was investigating the matter. The rest - 98 per cent - have developed levels of antibodies that were even higher than patients who have recovered from a serious coronavirus-induced condition, the hospital said in a statement released on Monday." We can but hope that the same will be true for the other main vaccines.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2021 10:23:44 GMT
Am I missing something here?
People are banging on about how wonderful and effective these new drugs are. The government are saying that the (R) rate is dropping like a stone, and yet yesterday saw the highest recorded deaths.
Sky is saying that the affectivness of one injection for the elderly is pretty shit.
Someone else is saying that the drugs are running out.
Someone else is saying...and on and on it goes.
And yet, over here, the sun is shining and the fluffy clouds are out...people are getting in queues, waiting for hours to receive a jab which now seems little more than useless. Talk about ‘Brain Washed!’
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Post by stefano on Jan 20, 2021 12:06:14 GMT
I assume the question posed by Reg "Am I missing something here?" was a rhetorical question or maybe a clever stab at irony. 😉
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2021 12:13:53 GMT
I assume the question posed by Reg "Am I missing something here?" was a rhetorical question or maybe a clever stab at irony. 😉 Oh you are awful...but I like you. 🪓 |
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rjdgull
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Post by rjdgull on Jan 20, 2021 14:56:44 GMT
The thing is, Covid takes a long time to kill you as it attacks every organ in your body. Once you catch it, takes around a week for the symptoms to manifest themselves. Initially you don’t feel too bad but give it another week or so you either get better or end up in hospital. Then you either get better or end up on a ventilator at which point your survival is not much more than 50/50. So those deaths are from people who caught this around Christmas when rates were rocketing.
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rjdgull
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Post by rjdgull on Jan 20, 2021 16:08:53 GMT
The thing is, Covid takes a long time to kill you as it attacks every organ in your body. Once you catch it, takes around a week for the symptoms to manifest themselves. Initially you don’t feel too bad but give it another week or so you either get better or end up in hospital. Then you either get better or end up on a ventilator at which point your survival is not much more than 50/50. So those deaths are from people who caught this around Christmas when rates were rocketing. - heart breaking account of an Exmouth man who sadly died from this virus but the account from his partner illustrates the time scales involved. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2021 18:47:00 GMT
The thing is, Covid takes a long time to kill you as it attacks every organ in your body. Once you catch it, takes around a week for the symptoms to manifest themselves. Initially you don’t feel too bad but give it another week or so you either get better or end up in hospital. Then you either get better or end up on a ventilator at which point your survival is not much more than 50/50. So those deaths are from people who caught this around Christmas when rates were rocketing. I think you might have missed my point. The point being, the government are saying that all is rosey in the Workhouse...when in fact it isn’t! Wonder drugs which are supposed to be a panacea for all our COVID problems aren’t very good, and those not very good drugs are in short supply. Then the wonderful news (or bollox) from the government that all is indeed rosey in the Workhouse, filters down to the gullible man on the street, who looks upon it as Gospel? Then, those self same gullible people go onto football forums and spread this Gospel, shouting “we’re saved brothers, oh brethren we’re saved”...or words to that affect. When in fact it’s a charnel house out there, and no shitty, hardly tested drug is gonna make much difference. That’s my point. 🙂 |
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rjdgull
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Post by rjdgull on Jan 20, 2021 23:58:23 GMT
Well, we are all locked down and everything is closed so wouldn’t say all is rosey? Not sure if you are talking about the vaccine or the drugs to treat Covid symptoms? If it is the vaccine which I think you are then my point is, a percentage of people having it this month will have their lives saved next month and so on. If it doesn’t we will find out very quick. The record number of people dying at this point haven’t been vaccinated. The top four categories account for around 90% of deaths and the target is for them to have the first jab by mid February. On that basis, combined with lockdown and allowing for the immune system to react and people refusing the jab, you would hope the daily deaths 7 day average to reduce from over a thousand to under a hundred by early March. The proof will be in the pudding.
If it is the drugs used in treatment of Covid, then if for example they reduce the chance of dying by 25% but twice the amount of people need to be treated then you only need to do the maths to work out why there is an upward trend.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2021 10:05:22 GMT
We shall all have to wait in line as usual and see how this pans out.
I must add though that I quite like Gospel: Elvis, The Righteous Brothers (indeed that’s where they got their name) all started in Gospel. So any Gospel that is spoken/sung/shouted on this thread is fine by me.
For some unknown reason I seem to be at loggerheads with other members on this issue...first time for everything I suppose! So I will withdraw from this thread (not from the site Jon, I wouldn’t want to give you a heart attack) and let others bask in the sunshine. 😎
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Jan 21, 2021 10:24:18 GMT
If it helps, none of the 38% needed to be hospitalised. The Oxford vaccine was always licensed to have a second jab between four and 12 weeks so government has pushed this out towards the limit for reasons outlined previously. I didn’t know that. Thanks for the info, Rob. That is a reassuring update that it is following the licensed guideline with Oxford/AstraZeneca, unlike with Pfizer delays Government opted for owing to a later admitted shortage. |
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Post by stewart on Jan 21, 2021 23:30:37 GMT
I am quite confused about all this. At the age of 74, I certainly have no intention of refusing the vaccine when my turn arrives. However, I'm not saying that out of any great confidence that it will definitely work, but because I don't want to miss out and feel foolish in case it does.
I am also very perplexed by the confidence shown by the scientists that it would be effective, even before the first "jab" was administered. How could they know that? And how are they judging it now that thousands have received it? Surely not by the simple mathematics of the percentage of people who die afterwards?
It would also be reassuring to know exactly what is in the solution being eased into people's arms, but nobody seems to know, or at least be willing to say. Until such time as my name is called out, so to speak, I am quite happy to continue going out only twice a week to the shops, wearing my mask and giving everyone I pass as wide a berth as possible.
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Post by swatcat on Jan 22, 2021 1:26:42 GMT
Stewart - "I am also very perplexed by the confidence shown by the scientists that it would be effective, even before the first "jab" was administered. How could they know that?" try this . . .
Reg - please don't leave the thread. Important to know the doubts and have the chat. ATB
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Post by swatcat on Jan 22, 2021 2:17:49 GMT
There's been plenty of comment on research from Israel showing early low efficacy on the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine. Here's some great posts from Posters on another Forum that bring some perspective :-
From 'B' - "The efficacy rate of 33% from Israel was only for day 14 post first vaccination. They don't have any data for after this date. We know from clinical trials precisely when the immune response kicks in and starts to offer protection - 12 days, so it's not unreasonable to suppose that the vast majority of infections occurred prior to day 12 and before BN162 could provide adequate protection. In other words, it tells us virtually nothing about the UK approach.
In addition, there is no data regarding severity of disease. The whole point of the UK's approach is to minimise hospital admissions to relieve pressure on the NHS and to save lives. If efficacy rate for protection against infection was low but was 100% for prevention of severe disease then that would actually be excellent news."
and . . . .
from 'K' - "The 33% was reduction in number of cases after 2 weeks between a cohort of vaccinated versus unvaccinated. This it NOT the same as saying the vaccine is 33% effective. You would expect the immune response to continue to build over time, it will not have peaked at two weeks. The 33% is just the start of the reduction in cases. And it is highly reasonable to assume that of the 200,000 people in the vaccinated group, there would have been increased risk behaviour as a consequence of "feeling safer". There were reported cases on the BBC of NHS nursing staff being "shocked" when they caught the virus within the first two weeks of vaccination because they didn't know they weren't immune. If a nurse can make that mistake, then a good number of the 200,000 probably did.
One of the major advantages of the vaccination in the trials, was the reduction in severe illness and hospitalisations. We do not know the outcomes of the vaccinated versus unvaccinated, but I would expect there to be far fewer cases of severe illness."
Me - unless any major problems arise, just MO, but the Ist Generation vaccines are the best chance we have atm to limit the rule of CV-19.
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Yes Jerry, sorry I rather pushed past your point - you are correct. But it is quite possible that good efficacy will be achieved in the over 65's too, we'll have to wait and see . . . it's important to me and a few others here I'd guess 
